05 — Market & Model
Three tiers, one platform: a gated free tier, a defence/industry subscription, and a per-diem rate for the field.
Each tier is priced and gated for how that buyer actually uses the platform — a genuine trial, a standing subscription, or a one-off deployment. Full detail on each is below.
Free
Up to 5 users. Heart-rate and GNSS location only — built for the recreational outdoor mass market: a hiking group, a family trip, a small climbing team trying real safety telemetry at zero cost. Defence access is separately gated behind a verified @mod.gov.uk / DoD / national-defence email — not a public sign-up.
Pro — £20–30 / user / month
All engines and agentic triage workflows unlocked. The subscription tier for Defence, Industry, and professional outdoor guiding companies running Swordstone/Knowstone as standing infrastructure for their staff and clients. Priced by vertical: £30/user/month for Defence and Civilian guide/SAR, £20/user/month for Industry, reflecting the competitive lone-worker-safety price ceiling found in our market benchmarking.
Per Diem — £2 / person / day
Full coverage priced by the deployment day, not the year — capped at 15 days per person per year (£30/person/year maximum). Built for the recreational outdoor mass market: individual climbers, hikers, and expedition members who want full coverage for the handful of days a year they're actually in the field, without a standing subscription.
Beachhead & TAM by Domain
Four domains, four go-to-market motions: Defence on the Pro tier via NATO SOF, Industry on the Pro tier via high-hazard lone-worker sectors, Fire Service on the Pro tier via London Fire Brigade and commercially funded fire and rescue services, Civilian on a blended motion — professional guides and SAR teams on Pro, the recreational/expedition mass market on Free and Per Diem.
Defence Beachhead (Pro)
70,000–105,000
2–3% of an estimated 3.5M NATO active troops (NATO SOF) — the priority near-term defence market.
Defence TAM
£1.26B
Long-run ceiling if Pro-tier pricing were extended across all ~3.5M NATO personnel. A later-stage expansion, not the near-term plan.
Industry Beachhead (Pro)
~530,000–1.06M
Illustrative 1–2% of Berg Insight's ~53M lone workers across Canada, the US, and Europe, weighted toward high-hazard sectors — oil & gas, mining, utilities, remote construction.
Industry TAM
$10.1B–$17.1B
Verified Market Research values the global lone worker safety solutions market at $10.1B (2023), growing to $17.14B by 2031 (15.1% CAGR). Narrower "monitoring/emergency-services-only" scopes run smaller, ~$1.4B–$3.99B; see disclosure below.
Fire Service Beachhead (Pro)
~4,729
London Fire Brigade's full uniformed operational establishment — the largest single UK fire and rescue service and the natural flagship design-partner target, ahead of wider UK Fire and Rescue Service and commercially funded (airport RFFS, industrial, Fire Service College) rollout.
Fire Service TAM
$2.4B–$7.7B
DataIntelo values the global First Responder Wearables market at $2.41B (2024), growing to $7.69B by 2033 (13.7% CAGR) — the closest sized third-party proxy for fire/EMS physiological and situational monitoring; UK Fire and Rescue Service headcount (44,963 wholetime + retained, 2025) sizes the near-term national beachhead below.
Civilian Beachhead
~7,000+
The IFMGA counts ~6,000–7,000 certified mountain/expedition guides worldwide (Pro-tier revenue) — before counting the recreational/expedition mass market this anchor doesn't size (Free/Per Diem revenue). No reliable global SAR-volunteer headcount exists (Canada alone reports 9,000+ Ground SAR volunteers) — treat the guide figure as a conservative professional anchor, not a full count.
Civilian TAM
$7.0B–$23.1B
Grand View Research values global sports analytics at $7.0B (2026), growing to $23.1B by 2033 (18.5% CAGR) — the closest sized-and-sourced proxy for expedition/outdoor performance tech; no dedicated "expedition tech" market report was found.
Math shown, not hidden: 3,500,000 troops × 2–3% SOF share = 70,000–105,000 operators · × £30/mo × 12 = £25.2M–£37.8M Defence ARR ceiling at full SOF-beachhead penetration · 3,500,000 × £30/mo × 12 = £1.26B broader NATO ceiling · 53M lone workers × 1–2% high-hazard share = ~530,000–1.06M Industry beachhead · 530,000–1,060,000 × £20/mo × 12 = £127.2M–£254.4M Industry ARR ceiling at full beachhead penetration · 44,963 UK FRS personnel × £20/mo × 12 = £10.8M Fire Service ARR ceiling at full UK FRS penetration · 6,000–7,000 IFMGA guides × £30/mo × 12 = £2.16M–£2.52M Civilian Pro-tier ceiling at full guide-anchor penetration, SAR-volunteer and recreational Free/Per Diem upside not counted. These are founder-supplied assumptions — presented as illustrative ceilings to reason from, not a revenue forecast.
Adjacent Markets — Directional, Not a Forecast
Third-party estimates vary widely by methodology and definition — shown here as ranges, with the low/high split disclosed, rather than a single cherry-picked figure.
- Global Military Wearables ($4.5B–$8.9B, 2025/26): Grand View Research puts the global market at ~$4.5B (2025); Fortune Business Insights estimates ~$8.9B (2026). Range reflects differing scope (sensors-only vs. sensors + wearable compute + textiles).
- Global Lone Worker Safety ($1.4B–$17.1B, 2025/26–2031): Verified Market Research's broadest "solutions" scope puts the market at $10.1B (2023) rising to $17.14B by 2031 (15.1% CAGR). Narrower scopes run much smaller: a "monitoring system" definition puts it at ~$1.37B (2026); an "emergency services" definition puts it at ~$1.40B (2026). We cite the range rather than picking the most flattering number.
- Sports Analytics ($5.7B–$23.1B, 2025–2033): Grand View Research values the global sports analytics market at $5.7B in 2025, growing to $7.0B in 2026 and $23.1B by 2033 (18.5% CAGR, 2026–2033). GVR reports the "On-Field" segment — player/team performance tracking and health assessment — held the largest share in 2025, directly adjacent to Knowstone's human performance telemetry. This is the closest sized third-party category to expedition/outdoor performance tech; no dedicated "expedition tech" market report was found.
Unfair Advantage: Built-In Field Access
Hydaspes Group separately operates a Validation-as-a-Service data and media licensing business, giving third-party defence-tech and dual-use partners access to the same expedition pipeline for their own field validation — example day-rates run £100–£1,200 for telemetry and data, and £1,000–£15,000 per minute for validated media capture. This is a separate commercial line from the Swordstone/Knowstone subscription pricing above; it is included here only to evidence the expedition-access moat behind the roadmap.
Consolidated SaaS ARR Milestones
Year 1 in every domain is a fixed, curated cohort of 250 design partners — not a percentage of beachhead, since a pilot cohort is sized by what the team can onboard and support directly, not by market share.
From Year 2, each domain resumes the stated market curve: (1% → 5% → 15% → 30% of that domain's beachhead, floored at the 250-user design-partner base) multiplied by that domain's list price — Pro at £30/user/month for Defence and the Civilian guide/SAR anchor, £20/user/month for Industry and Fire Service (reflecting the competitive lone-worker-safety price ceiling identified in our market benchmarking), modelled below; the larger Civilian Free and Per Diem recreational mass market is deliberately left unsized, so the Civilian figures here are conservative, not a ceiling.
No CAC, churn, opex or hardware unit economics are assumed here — those require confirmed numbers we don't have yet, so we've left them out rather than guessed. This is a software-only ARR model; Phase 2 hardware revenue gets its own model once BOM and margin are validated.
| Metric |
Year 1 |
Year 2 |
Year 3 |
Year 4 |
Year 5 |
| Defence users (Pro) — Y1 fixed at 250 design partners, Y2–5 % of beachhead |
250 (design partners) |
700 |
3,500 |
10,500 |
21,000 |
| Defence ARR |
£90,000 |
£252,000 |
£1,260,000 |
£3,780,000 |
£7,560,000 |
| Industry users (Pro) — Y1 fixed at 250 design partners, Y2–5 % of beachhead |
250 (design partners) |
5,300 |
26,500 |
79,500 |
159,000 |
| Industry ARR (£20/user/month) |
£60,000 |
£1,272,000 |
£6,360,000 |
£19,080,000 |
£38,160,000 |
| Fire Service users (Pro) — Y1 fixed at 250 design partners, Y2–5 % of beachhead (floored at 250) |
250 (design partners) |
250 |
250 |
709 |
1,419 |
| Fire Service ARR (£20/user/month) |
£60,000 |
£60,000 |
£60,000 |
£170,160 |
£340,560 |
| Civilian users (Pro tier — professional guides & SAR teams) — Y1 fixed at 250 design partners, Y2–5 % of beachhead (floored at 250) |
250 (design partners) |
250 |
350 |
1,050 |
2,100 |
| Civilian ARR (Pro tier, £30/user/month — guide/SAR anchor; Free/Per Diem recreational upside not counted) |
£90,000 |
£90,000 |
£126,000 |
£378,000 |
£756,000 |
| Consolidated ARR (Defence + Industry + Fire + Civilian) |
£300,000 |
£1,674,000 |
£7,806,000 |
£23,408,160 |
£46,816,560 |